n this month’s newsletter, we review the past year’s government response to the economic effects of Covid-19 and highlight some potential macro questions worth considering as we enter 2021.
Many firms discuss the impact of COVID-19 on various aspects of businesses, but few have access to consumer data across industries to look at trends. VION initiated an investigative review of the COVID-19 pandemic on “performing” non-bank consumer accounts receivable, primarily focusing on the fiscal stimulus impact and on-going recessionary effects.
Marcus Aurelius (Roman emperor from 161 to 180 and a stoic philosopher) wanted us “to bear in mind constantly that all of this has happened before and will happen again.” We might think we are in unique times, that no one has ever gone through what we have gone through, but that is false.
We discuss an oddity of the debt capital markets which seems to be a repeat of something that also occurred during the 2008 financial crisis, that is, a differentiation between levels of corporate debt issuance and asset backed securities (“ABS”, and including collateralized loan obligations “CLOs”) issuance, and explore some of the reasons why this may be occurring.
As we continue into the 2nd half of the year and round out a volatile June, we note in our inaugural post-Covid periodic newsletter that aggressive US fiscal and monetary stimulus have resulted in mixed price signaling in the public and private capital markets, and perhaps highly uneven distribution of stimulus throughout the economy.